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  IBM demonstrates regional weather forecasting at AMS99

IBM demonstrates Deep Thunder at the 1999 American Meteorological Society conference

The capabilities developed and utilized for a number of past experiments were demonstrated and refined at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS:  January 10-15, 1998 in Dallas, TX).  Deep Thunder was replicated in the IBM booth as part of the conference's technical exhibition. The system was adapted to the Dallas area as shown below.  For this and any of the subsequent images, you can view a higher-resolution version by simply clicking on it.  You can also interact with this map via a scene in PanoramIX or simplified VRML.

New 24-hour mesoscale forecasts were produced at 8 km resolution in a region roughly 800x800 km in extent several times each day during the conference.  The computation took place on six 120 MHz P2SC thin nodes on an SP that was in the booth.  One 135 MHz P2SC wide node was used for I/O.  Three workstations (two IBM RS/6000 43P-260s and one IBM Intellistation M-Pro) and two laptops (IBM RS/6000 860 and IBM Thinkpad 760E) were available in the booth to interact with the model and analyze results.  Due to a number of logistical difficulties, raw observations and access to data assimilation via LAPS for the pre-processor step were unavailable at the hotel where the AMS conference took place.  Therefore, RAMS was initialized with the results from the ETA synoptic scale model from NCEP, which are computed at 32 km resolution, but sampled at 80 km for public availability.  These same data were also used for boundary conditions for the model.

Output from RAMS every 10 minutes of forecast time were provided for browsing visualization. Animations were produced routinely as the primary mechanism to evaluate the model.  The system also permitted simple tracking of the simulation, so that the interactive tools could be utilized while the model was running. If there were problems in the model run, then the execution could be terminated and the model restarted with new input observations.  In addition, interactive visualization applications for the analysis of post-processed model results were available operationally, which are illustrated below.
 
The following image is from one of the animations produced during the conference.  The image shows a terrain map, overlaid with color-filled contour bands of wind chill temperature for 9 AM on January 13.  Coastline, state, county and river maps are draped over the topography with the location of several cities marked by name and the wind chill temperature.  Predicted clouds are visualized as a white, translucent isosurface of cloud water density.  Surface winds are shown as streamlines with directional arrows colored by speed.  The 73-frame animation shows a cold-front passing through central Texas.  (The animation can also be viewed at higher resolution, but the file is three times bigger.)  The location of the front as it moves in time can be seen where the wind streamlines appear to be "bunched" together with narrower contours of wind chill behind it.  In the animation, the motion of clouds follows the front.  This particular time step can also be examined via a flyover animation, simplified VRML geometry and a PanoramIX scene. (The flyover animation can also be viewed at higher resolution, but the file is about two times bigger.)

 

Other visualizations of this same forecast are available for viewing.


After each RAMS execution, all of the results are collected and reorganized into a form that can be used by standard meteorological analysis tools as provided by NWS (e.g., AWIPS), FSL and others.  These post-processed data were made available for two interactive applications.  This includes all of computed variables from the model, but at hourly resolution unlike the browser application that worked with a subset of variables but at six times the temporal resolution.  Here is a sample image and animation created with this application for the previously discussed forecast run initiated on January 13 at 0Z UTC (6 PM CST on January 12).


 
A surface variable (pressure) has been selected for display as pseudo-colored filled contour bands, which are overlaid on a topographic map.  Any of the surface variables produced by the model may be presented in this fashion.  Coastlines (black), state boundaries (white) and rivers (blue) are draped on the surface.  An upper air variable (relative humidity) has been selected for display via surface extraction.  The surface at 75% is requested in translucent tan, which corresponds roughly to a cloud boundary.  Another field (temperature) has been selected to show as a vertical slice, which is pseudo-color contoured.  Any of the three-dimensional fields available from the model can be visualized with either of these methods.  The upper air wind data can be seen along two vertical profiles, which are specified interactively, and via streamribbons.  The direction of the model wind field along these "virtual sounding" is shown via vector arrows.  Both the arrows and ribbons are pseudo-colored by horizontal wind speed.  The length of the arrows also corresponds to the horizontal speed.  Points along the profile are used as seeds for the streamribbon integration.  Each profile is realized as a pseudo-colored tube, which is contoured by the variable selected for isosurface realization (i.e., relative humidity).  The visualization for the profile toward the center of the domain can help illustrate the three dimensional effects of the front moving through the area as shown earlier.

The other application is a RAMS slicer, which provides two- and 2-1/2-dimensional interaction with surface and upper layers of the model data.  This capability was introduced for the first time operationally at the AMS 99 conference.  Additional details about the application is available in a paper that discusses the visualization portion of Deep Thunder.  Here is a sample image and animation for the same forecast produced by the slicer.


 
Five different surface variables have been selected in a combined visualization.  Mean sea level pressure is shown as pseudo-color.  Wind velocity is illustrated as streamlines with directional arrows arrows, colored by speed.  Colored line contours of relative humidity in increments of 10% are shown.  These planar representations are deformed vertically by lifted index to create a shaded surface.  A coastline map (black) and state boundaries (white) are draped on the surface.  Finally, temperature values at discrete locations are also shown by value on the surface.  Any of the surface and upper air fields available from the model can be visualized with any of these methods.  Since lifted index can be used to indicate the relative instability in the atmosphere, the peak in its surface illustrates where the front is located.  This representation is a very effective method, especially in animation, of showing the motion of a front.

Other visualizations of this same forecast are available for viewing.


To evaluate these model results, it is useful to compare them to actual observations as well as other model results.


A paper that summarizes the visualization work for this project and the results is available for you to read.  It was presented at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference, January 10-15, 1999 in Dallas, TX.

Alternatively, you can download a PDF copy of this paper, L. Treinish, Creating Effective Visualizations for Operational Weather Forecasting.
 
lloydt@watson.ibm.com



  
 
  

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