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 Next:Black Box Model Construction Up:Model Generation Previous:Model Generation
Identification of Relevant Factors

There exist well established statistical techniques to select factors that are correlated to particular phenomenon. In particular, the evaluation of the covariance between two variables, tex2html_wrap_inline747 and tex2html_wrap_inline749 , is commonly used to measure the correlation between a factor and the phenomenon under investigation:

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A covariance other than zero indicates that the two factors are either positively (if the covariance is greater than zero) or negatively (if the covariance is less than zero) correlated.

In the HPS model, tex2html_wrap_inline747 might refer to the amount of precipitation in a given month, while tex2html_wrap_inline749 refers to the population growth of mice. Other possible predictor variables include precipitation, biomass (often measured in terms of vegetation index), existence of wet habitat, and density of susceptible population broken down by age and sex.

The goal is to select a set of nonredundant or minimally redundant factors that serve as good indicators or predictors for the disease. The common procedure for selecting relevant factors is to select those factors that are strongly correlated to the phenomenon being investigated (e.g., tex2html_wrap_inline755 ) and are uncorrelated (or weakly correlated) with other factors. 

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