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Buyers and their search strategies

In the information economy, buyer agents will also make strategic choices based on economic considerations. We have explored economic decision making by buyers within the context of the shopbot model [17]. Suppose that there is a cost tex2html_wrap_inline842 for obtaining s price quotes. This might represent an intrinsic, implicit cost that reflects the time and effort required to obtain the quotes, or it may represent a real fee paid to a shopbot. Then a rational buyer b would not blindly adhere to a fixed search strategy. Instead, it would select a search strategy tex2html_wrap_inline752 to minimize the expected total cost of the item plus the search cost tex2html_wrap_inline850 , given current market conditions.

By making the simplifying assumption that all sellers use the GT pricing strategy, we have studied how the buyer strategy vector tex2html_wrap_inline852 evolves as a function of the costs tex2html_wrap_inline842 . Suppose that tex2html_wrap_inline842 is a sublinear function of s. One plausible justification for such a cost structure is that the first few quotes represent the overhead of going to a shopbot in the first place; additional quotes are relatively inexpensive because it takes little extra time to obtain them. At any given time step, we assume that a small fraction of buyers reconsider their strategy. Given the current GT price distribution tex2html_wrap_inline860 , which itself depends on the buyer strategy vector, a buyer can compute the price it would expect to pay as a function of the number of quotes s. Of course, this is a monotonically nonincreasing function of s. On the other hand, tex2html_wrap_inline842 can be assumed to be a monotonically nondecreasing function of s. Thus there is a balance point -- an optimal s that minimizes the total expected expenditure. The buyers myopically switch from their current strategy to the one that is currently optimal. The sellers immediately readjust their distributions to reflect the updated value of tex2html_wrap_inline852 , and a new set of buyers responds in turn to the updated tex2html_wrap_inline860 .

   figure186
Figure 4: Evolution of indicated components of buyer strategy vector tex2html_wrap_inline852 for 5 sellers, with nonlinear search costs tex2html_wrap_inline688 . At any given iteration, 0.005 of the buyers reconsider their strategy. Final equilibrium oscillates with period 15 around a mixture of strategy types 1, 2, and 3.

Previous research has shown that, if the search costs tex2html_wrap_inline842 are equal to some constant times s, then the system evolves to an equilibrium in which only strategies 1 and 2 are present  [3]. However, as depicted in Fig. 4, nonlinear search costs can lead to non-equilibrium evolutionary dynamics in which strategies other than 1 and 2 can co-exist. In related experiments, we have found that the buyer search behavior can be strongly influenced by the price structure tex2html_wrap_inline842 . The oscillations tend to grow in magnitude as the fraction of buyers that switch strategies at each time step grows, and the period can become shorter. Furthermore, different initial conditions can lead to very different final equilibria or limit-cycle attractors.


next up previous
Next: Shopbots: how to price Up: Shopbots and pricebots Previous: Foresight and machine learning

kephart
Mon Mar 20 11:03:38 EST 2000