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Next: Conclusions Up: Beyond simple pricing Previous: Information filtering and horizontal

Information bundling

A related realm in which economically-motivated software agents are likely to play a significant role is information bundling. To a much greater extent than is possible in print, an electronic publisher can unbundle an issue and sell individual articles, or re-bundle articles together into personalized sets. Negotiation over the price and composition of bundles is likely to become a natural application for software agents.

Just as in the information filtering domain, agents will need to set or interpret a number of price and product parameters simultaneously. For example, suppose that N items are available for inclusion in a bundle. gif Then each seller could offer tex2html_wrap_inline1046 different products. Rather than requiring the seller to choose one of them (as we did in the information filtering model), we permit the seller to offer all of these choices. This requires the seller to maintain prices for all tex2html_wrap_inline1046 possible products.

The seller can reduce the complexity of managing so many separate prices by introducing a pricing structure. One simple pricing scheme has just a single parameter: all items are priced identically at tex2html_wrap_inline722 , with no volume discounts. Thus the consumer pays tex2html_wrap_inline1052 to purchase n of the N possible items. Another one-parameter pricing scheme amounts to what is traditionally meant by ``bundling'': all N items are included in the bundle at a fixed bundle price of F -- regardless of how many the consumer actually wants. An example of a two-parameter price structure is the ``two-part tariff'' scheme, in which the charge for n items is tex2html_wrap_inline1064 , i.e. there is a per-item charge of tex2html_wrap_inline722 , plus a fixed fee F that is assessed if any items are purchased at all. If prices are based solely on the number of items in the bundle, then the most general price structure is a nonlinear scheme with N parameters -- potentially an arbitrary monotonically nondecreasing function of the number of items purchased.

Suppose that there is just a single seller. Then its objective is to choose a price structure and the optimal price parameters for that structure. If the buyers' valuations of that seller's wares are known by the buyers and by the seller, this becomes a standard optimization problem. In general, the seller can extract greater profits from more complex price structures [1].

However, if the seller does not know the buyers' valuations a priori, it must use an adaptive procedure to adjust its price parameters. We have adapted the ``amoeba'' optimization method to this problem [23]. Starting from an arbitrary setting of price parameters, amoeba selects new parameters, measures the profit obtained at those parameters for a while, and uses these measurements to guide the choice of the next set of parameters. It is typically very successful at finding optimal or near-optimal price parameters, but while it is exploring the parameter space it may visit unprofitable regions. Thus it is important to minimize the number of evaluations required to attain near optimality.

   figure290
Figure 9: Average cumulative profit vs. time for five different pricing structures using the amoeba algorithm.

Figure 9 shows the time-averaged profit extracted by a monopolist seller that uses amoeba to learn the optimal setting of its parameters. The five curves represent various pricing structures ranging in complexity from 1 to 10 parameters. Although the nonlinear pricing structure with 10 parameters yields the highest profit asymptotically, it takes much longer to learn than the simpler pricing structures. If the time scale on which the market changes is shorter than the amount of time it takes the amoeba to conduct 1000 or more evaluations, the two-part tariff scheme may be preferable [2].

If the buyers themselves do not know their own valuations until they have a chance to sample the seller's wares, and if they allow for the possibility that the valuations shift in time, then the problem becomes much more complex. Suppose that the seller has adopted a two-part tariff scheme, and that buyers must pay the subscription fee F prior to examining the items and deciding how many to purchase at tex2html_wrap_inline722 per item. Suppose as well that the consumers use a simple form of maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the likely value to be obtained by subscribing.

In this scenario, we have observed an interesting ``leakage'' effect. If the seller sets F and tex2html_wrap_inline722 to the values that are optimal for perfectly informed buyers, profits decrease over time. Profit leakage occurs because, as buyers estimate the average value of the seller's wares, statistical errors sometimes lead a buyer to the false conclusion that the subscription fee F is not worthwhile. Once that buyer stops subscribing, it will stop receiving the information that it would need to revise its estimate, and therefore it will become disenfranchised permanently unless the seller lowers its prices.

One solution is for the buyers to periodically resample what the seller has to offer. However, even if buyers do not do this, the seller can still prevent profit erosion by lowering its prices. Once disenfranchised buyers re-enter the market, they will soon discover that their previous valuations were overly pessimistic, and they will (temporarily) stay in the market even if prices are raised back to previous levels. Unfortunately, as illustrated in Fig. 10, the amoeba algorithm as it is typically described is unable to discover how to manipulate prices dynamically so as to maintain profits [16]. Because the standard amoeba algorithm assumes that the optimization problem is not changing with time, it fails to notice that prices that were once profitable may no longer be after a while. This causes it to get stuck at a fixed setting of parameters, leading to profit erosion.

  figure291
Figure 10: (a)Profit tex2html_wrap_inline716 (solid line; normalized to ``ideal'' value of 0.41367) and proportion of subscribed consumers m (dashed line) vs. time (in subscription periods) and (b) f (solid) and tex2html_wrap_inline722 (dashed) vs. time when the producer uses amoeba for online learning. Horizontal dashed lines indicate the optimal f and tex2html_wrap_inline722 values for fully informed consumers. The market consists of M=10000 consumers and one seller offering N=10 articles per subscription period.

However, we have implemented a simple modification of the amoeba that recognizes the dynamic nature of the optimization problem. This version adjusts prices dynamically. As illustrated in Fig. 11, the price fluctuations are large and rapid, but they are generated in such a way that steady long-term profits are maintained. Ironically, it is precisely the fact that the modified amoeba recognizes the dynamic nature of the market that causes it to interact with buyers in such a way as to stabilize the market in the long term.

 
  figure292
Figure 11: (a)Profit tex2html_wrap_inline716 (solid line; normalized to ``ideal'' value of 0.41367) and proportion of subscribed consumers m (dashed line) vs. time (in subscription periods) and (b) f (solid) and tex2html_wrap_inline722 (dashed) vs. time when the producer uses the modified amoeba algorithm for online learning. The parameter settings remain unchanged from Fig. 10.


next up previous
Next: Conclusions Up: Beyond simple pricing Previous: Information filtering and horizontal

kephart
Mon Mar 20 11:03:38 EST 2000