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Simulation Method

In these experiments, we generated a population of 1000 consumers with Chuang-Sirbu valuations as described above. We constructed a monopolist producer which attempted to learn the optimal parameters for each of the five schedules described above using the two different learning algorithms. The producer had no explicit knowledge of the consumers, such as the items they purchased or the fact that they fit a Chuang-Sirbu valuation model. It merely chose a set of parameters and observed a resulting profit signal.

As noted above, there is no reason to believe that these learning methods are optimally efficient; gains in performance could be achieved by either introducing explicit knowledge about consumer preferences or by tuning these algorithms for use on these specific problems. However, the purpose of these experiments is not to show how quickly a given algorithm can learn a particular schedule, but to show the transitional profits of agents using these pricing schedules as the schedules are being learned.

While amoeba is always attempting find an optimum and therefore has no explicit decision to make about whether it needs to acquire more information, a producer using the neural network must decide whether to use its currently optimal solution or to explore further. This decision was made by exploiting with probability found/possible, where found is the number of samples observed so far and possible is the number of possible integer price schedulesgif. The producer modified this by pruning known parts of the profit landscape; for example, if a set of parameters yielded zero profit, increasing one parameter while fixing the others will also yield zero profit, and so that part of the space need not be explored. If the producer exploited, it chose the prices currently believed to be optimal; if it explored, it randomly chose an unobserved set of prices. This choice of exploration strategy is not necessarily optimal; the point was to choose a simple strategy and hold it constant across the different schedules.

In these experiments, as in the analysis above, tex2html_wrap_inline643 was drawn from U[0, 0.7]. tex2html_wrap_inline833 was fixed at 10. Experiments were conducted for both N = 10 and N = 100 goods. The producer was given 1000 iterations to attempt to learn the optimal pricing parameters for this static population. Results are averaged over 10 runs.

In order to produce a balanced comparison of amoeba and the neural network on the different price schedules, a uniform search space was selected. For each pricing parameter, an upper bound much larger than the optimal value was chosen. For example, in linear pricing with tex2html_wrap_inline839 , the upper bound was set at 25, where the optimal value is approximately 6.3. The neural net randomly chose points from this space when exploring, reducing the bounds when areas of zero profit were found. The amoeba algorithm began with a simplex at the origin and at the point specified by the upper bound. This provided both algorithms with approximately equivalent search spaces.


next up previous
Next: Results: Learning Complexity and Up: Incomplete Information: Simulations of Previous: Incomplete Information: Simulations of

kephart
Sat Oct 23 00:54:56 EDT 1999