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All-or-nothing interest profiles

Let us perform the same analysis for the all-or-nothing distribution, in which a consumer's interest in a category is either tex2html_wrap_inline823 or tex2html_wrap_inline827 , with probability tex2html_wrap_inline969 . Again assuming that articles are published uniformly in all active categories ( tex2html_wrap_inline841 for all j), we again found an analytic solution for tex2html_wrap_inline539 as a function of tex2html_wrap_inline541 and tex2html_wrap_inline543 . Figs. 5 and 6 show contour plots of the optimal number of categories tex2html_wrap_inline539 , for the two bias values tex2html_wrap_inline553 and tex2html_wrap_inline563 , repectively. One thing to note in Fig.5 is the small ``jump'' in the contours at tex2html_wrap_inline987 , tex2html_wrap_inline989 . This does not appear to be an artifact, though we do not at this time have an interpretation of it. In general, though most of the contours are nearly parallel, they are not exactly so.

In Fig. 6, the bias tex2html_wrap_inline563 has caused the spam regime to be much reduced in area, with a similar shift in all the other contours. This is due to the overall reduction in the number of articles a typical consumer would buy, caused by the change in bias. This bias value, which corresponds to the average consumer being very interested in 10% of the categories and not at all interested in the remaining 90%, is perhaps not an unreasonable distribution for an information filtering context.

The shape of the contours differs only in detail from the uniform distribution of Fig. 4. In all cases, there is a large region of tex2html_wrap_inline993 space in which a broker prefers to specialize to a small number of categories, even though it has a monopoly over any category it chooses to offer. The fact that such dissimilar distributions of consumer interests give rise to qualitatively similar results suggests that contours like Figs. 4, 5 and 6 would be found for a wide class of consumer interest profiles. And as we will see in the next section, the optimal single-broker tex2html_wrap_inline539 plays a central role in the behavior of multi-broker systems.

   figure186
Figure 5: The optimal number of categories tex2html_wrap_inline539 for the broker to offer as a function of tex2html_wrap_inline541 and tex2html_wrap_inline543 , for the all-or-nothing distribution of consumer interests with tex2html_wrap_inline553 . As before, V=1.

How can we understand these contours? In the region where tex2html_wrap_inline949 , as we have already noted, the extrinsic costs are too high to permit any value of price P that simultaneously gives profit to the broker and positive net value to the consumers. But why should there be large regions for which tex2html_wrap_inline539 is nonzero but small?

Consider for the moment the interest profile distribution that gives rise to Fig. 6. As the number of categories offered by the broker grows, the likelihood of any given consumer being interested in all categories decreases as tex2html_wrap_inline1013 . In general, for the typical consumer, additional categories means additional junk. This means there is an overall decrease in the percentage of articles each consumer pays for, regardless of the price P. Since the broker has to pay tex2html_wrap_inline543 for each article it sends, there comes a point at which the transportation costs outweigh the expected revenue from sales to consumers. Similarly, each consumer has to pay tex2html_wrap_inline541 to evaluate whether it is interested in an article. At some point, the percentage of positive evaluations becomes so low that it fails to overcome the cost of evaluating. Reducing tex2html_wrap_inline543 and tex2html_wrap_inline541 reduces the disvalue of sending (and receiving) junk, pushing out the threshold at which the cost of junk outweighs the value of good information, and thereby increasing tex2html_wrap_inline539 . As the extrinsic costs are further reduced, they become so low that the broker is assured of a profit on every additional category it offers, and the system finds itself in the spam regime where tex2html_wrap_inline1027 .

   figure197
Figure 6: The optimal number of categories tex2html_wrap_inline539 for the broker to offer as a function of tex2html_wrap_inline541 and tex2html_wrap_inline543 , for the all-or-nothing distribution of consumer interests with tex2html_wrap_inline563 . As before, V=1.


next up previous
Next: Competitive webs Up: Specialization without competition Previous: Uniformly distributed consumer interests

Jeff Kephart
Mon Aug 3 16:17:36 EDT 1998