Conclusions

 

In this paper, we investigated the dynamical behavior of a market consisting of simple automated sellers and buyers of a vertically differentiated product or service. We introduced a simple family of buyer utility functions that allowed for tradeoffs between price and quality, and studied two different populations of such buyers. The first population was extremely sensitive to quality, while the second was extremely sensitive to price. For each of these populations, we explored the dynamic collective behavior resulting when the sellers employed five different price-setting strategies ranging widely from perfect knowledge and unlimited computational power to almost zero knowledge and capability.

For the quality-sensitive buyer population, all pricing strategies eventually led to the same price equilibrium. However, for the price-sensitive population, we found that most pricing strategies led to large-amplitude cyclical price wars. It is possible to explain these price war dynamics (and their absence in the case of the derivative-following strategy) as resulting from the underlying topology of the profit landscape, a concept that was introduced in earlier papers [1, 2, 3].

Preliminary explorations indicate that multi-peaked landscapes and price-war dynamics can occur in cases more general than were reported here. We have observed these phenomena in hybrid populations of buyers with tex2html_wrap_inline1026 , and in which tex2html_wrap_inline764 and tex2html_wrap_inline762 are not strictly correlated. In these cases, the nature of the price war is slightly different: a seller offering a higher quality can ``undercut'' a lower-quality seller even by offering its product at a higher price. Price wars consist of general downward trends in the sellers' prices, with what appear to be roughly constant non-zero gaps between the prices.

Another fruitful avenue for further research is to explore the effect of inhomogenous pricing strategies. In preliminary work along these lines, we have watched a single myoptimal take advantage of four derivative followers.

Finally, we expect the dynamics to get considerably more interesting when we permit sellers to vary their quality and their price simultaneously in an effort to maximize their profit. Previous work on an information filtering model [1, 2, 3, 4] has revealed the existence of very complex price and niche wars, in which the sellers in the economy all attempt to grab the same niche at the same price, leaving a large segment of the buyer population unsatisfied. It will be interesting to see whether sellers in a vertically differentiated market will all attempt to fight over some perceived optimal quality level, leaving other quality levels abandoned. If so, it will be very important to understand this phenomenon well enough to devise mechanisms for thwarting it, as it jeopardizes the viability of this and other automated agent economies.



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