Model

 

   figure55
Figure 1: Vertically differentiated market economy of software agents.

The model, illustrated in Fig. 1, consists of S sellers and B buyers. Each seller offers a single product or service (henceforth referred to generically as a unit). The unit may have a number of different attributes, each with several discrete possible values, or a continuous range of possible values. However, we shall make the simplifying assumption that the preferences of the buyers are correlated in such a way that there exists a universally agreed-upon mapping that transforms a unit's set of attributes and values, however complex this may be, into a simple scalar quality

Through some mechanism (such as a bulletin board), all buyers are informed about the price tex2html_wrap_inline736 and quality tex2html_wrap_inline738 of units offered by each seller s. The qualities tex2html_wrap_inline738 may be reported by the sellers (assumed to be honest), or alternatively they could be measured or derived and then reported by an independent, trusted third party.

For simplicity, we assume that time is discrete. (This is not an essential aspect of the model.) At any given moment t, each buyer purchases a unit from at most one of the sellers -- either the one it perceives to be the best choice given its understanding of the prices and qualities, or none if no seller's offer is sufficiently attractive. Note that a buyer's understanding of the prices and qualities may be imperfect and delayed, because it may not have the resources or ability to continuously monitor them.

We model a buyer's decision-making process as follows. Each buyer b has a utility function tex2html_wrap_inline748 , which is a single-valued function of the perceived price tex2html_wrap_inline750 and perceived quality tex2html_wrap_inline752 of a prospective supplier. The buyer b will select the single seller s for which tex2html_wrap_inline748 is maximized, so long as that maximal utility is positive, and purchase a unit at the actual price tex2html_wrap_inline736 . If the maximal utility is zero or negative, the buyer does not purchase a unit from any seller. In this paper, we will take the utility functions to have the simple form

  equation70

where tex2html_wrap_inline762 is the buyer's price ceiling (the maximum price it is willing to pay), tex2html_wrap_inline764 is its quality floor (the minimum quality it is willing to accept), tex2html_wrap_inline766 is a parameter that ranges between 0 and 1, and tex2html_wrap_inline768 represents the step function: 1 for x>0 and 0 otherwise. A buyer with tex2html_wrap_inline772 is at the extreme limit of price sensitivity: it will choose the seller with the lowest price, just so long as its quality is no less than the quality floor tex2html_wrap_inline764 . A buyer with tex2html_wrap_inline776 is at the extreme limit of quality sensitivity: it will choose the seller with the highest quality, just so long as its price is no more than the price ceiling tex2html_wrap_inline762 .

For a given set of assumptions about how the estimated prices and qualities tex2html_wrap_inline780 and tex2html_wrap_inline782 are obtained from the actual values tex2html_wrap_inline736 and tex2html_wrap_inline738 , a buyer b can be characterized completely by its set of three parameters tex2html_wrap_inline790 .

The sellers are somewhat more complex in behavior. At time t, several events may occur. First, at most one randomly-selected seller is given the opportunity to revise and publicize its price tex2html_wrap_inline736 and/or quality tex2html_wrap_inline738 . There is no cost for doing so. Then, each buyer is given the opportunity to receive and make use of this updated information (if it wishes) to revise its choice of seller. Finally, each seller receives tex2html_wrap_inline736 from each buyer that has selected it, and pays a cost tex2html_wrap_inline800 (assumed to increase monotonically with tex2html_wrap_inline738 ) to produce this good and deliver it to the buyer.

When a seller has the opportunity to modify its price and/or quality, its decision is based upon an attempt to maximize its own profit. Various assumptions may be made about the nature and accuracy of information available to the seller, as well as its computational capability, In this paper we will consider five strategies that cover a broad range of assumptions:

  • A game-theoretic strategy can be used in the limit of perfect knowledge about the entire market, including all buyers and sellers and their strategies, and unlimited computational capability.
  • A myoptimal, or ``myopically optimal'' strategy requires virtually unlimited computational capability and full information about the consumer population's desires and the prices and qualities of competitors. However, the strategies of the competitors are unknown, and the myoptimal seller simply assumes that the status quo will be maintained (i.e. the other sellers will not change their parameters before the seller has another opportunity to re-set its parameters).
  • A computationally-limited myoptimal strategy, which is like the myoptimal strategy except that the computational capabilities are weaker: an exhaustive search of all possible new parameter settings is replaced with a tighter search in the neighborhood of the current parameter set, with a few random forays further afield.
  • A trial-and-error strategy, in the extreme limit where sellers have no knowledge of one another and no knowledge of the consumer population. In the trial-and-error approach, new prices are generated randomly and tried out for a short period of time. If profits are found to improve after the adoption of a new price, that price is retained. Otherwise, the previous price is reinstated.
  • A derivative-following strategy, in the extreme limit where sellers have no knowledge of one another and no knowledge of the consumer population. A derivative follower simply experiments with its parameters, continuing to change them in the same direction until the observed profitability is reduced, at which point the direction of change is reversed.

There are numerous questions that one might ask about the collective behavior that arises in such a model under various assumptions about the consumer population, including the accuracy of the buyers' estimates of current prices and qualities, the joint distribution of consumer parameter sets tex2html_wrap_inline804 , the sellers' parameter update strategies, etc. Can a reasonable, stable equilibrium set of prices be reached under conditions of information delay and uncertainty? Are there reasonable price-adjustment or quality-adjustment strategies for sellers to pursue, even when they have imperfect, incomplete information and/or limited computational capabilities? If an equilibrium is reached, how favorable is it for the various sellers and buyers in the system?

This work addresses only a subset of these questions. We restrict ourselves to the study of two consumer populations generated by widely different consumer parameter distributions. First, we will study a population of buyers that are quality sensitive, i.e. each buyer seeks the highest quality seller whose price does not exceed that buyer's budget. The second population of buyers is price sensitive, i.e. each buyer seeks the cheapest seller that meets that buyer's minimum quality requirement. For each of these populations, we will perform five experiments. In each experiment, we will assume that each seller adopts a given one of the five price adjustment algorithms outlined above, and we will observe the resulting price dynamics.



BACK TO INDEX PAGE | PREVIOUS SECTION | NEXT SECTION