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One reason why current anti-virus techniques can be expected
to fail within the next few years is the rapid, accelerating
influx of new computer viruses.
The number of different known DOS viruses over the
last several years can be fit remarkably
well by an exponential curve.  Currently, it is approximately 2000,
with two or three new ones appearing each day -- a rate which
already taxes to the limit the ability of anti-virus vendors
to develop detectors and cures for them.
Were this trend to hold up (Fig. 1),
there would be approximately
10 million different DOS viruses by
January, 2000 -- about 100,000 new ones per day!
Of course, curve extrapolation of a phenomenon that depends largely
on human sociology and psychology should be regarded very skeptically,
but it is not impossible that virus writers could be so prolific.
To do so, they would have to
automate both the writing and the distribution of
viruses. Already, the beginnings of a trend towards
automated virus-writing is evinced
by the Virus Creation Laboratory, a menu-driven virus
toolkit circulating among virus writers' bulletin boards.
Even if the rate at which new viruses appear were to suddenly plateau
at a level not much higher than what it is today, the number of
different DOS viruses could easily reach the tens of thousands
by the year 2000,
and the burden on current anti-virus techniques to detect and
eradicate so many viruses would be severe.
Figure: Number of different known DOS viruses vs. time (logarithmic scale).
Straight line is the best exponential fit of the data through mid-1993.
Warning: Extrapolation of the exponential trend beyond 1993 should
be regarded very skeptically.
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